Monday, June 30, 2008

Are you crazy enough to buy airline stocks?


First a disclaimer: Anyone who takes financial advice from me is an idiot. But that said, I couldn't help but post tidbits from an article I ran across on SeekingAlpha.com that makes the case that now is the time to invest in airline stocks. Their reasoning:

  1. Surging oil prices is yesterday's news and it's already been factored (err hammered) into airline stock prices
  2. Speaking of oil, what goes up must come down. Yes, like this guy, they think the 35% rise in oil this QUARTER is a bubble - and like all bubbles, it will pop
  3. The AMEX XAL airline index is down 62% in ONE MONTH (June), it has to bounce...right?
  4. Corrections - when they come (and they always come) - tend to be brutal. The energy rally is overdue for a correction and the author predicts when it comes the hammered airline stocks will have a sound bounce.
The author then alludes to an airline stock he's purchased but doesn't say what it is. I'm thinking based on the clues provided - best managed, sound currency, recently raised it's dividend (or even has a dividend) - that it has to be Lufthansa. From their website in regards to fiscal year 2007:
...the outstanding figures were the result of the company's successful efforts to make Lufthansa an even greater asset for investors and a more attractive product for customers. In view of the excellent development of the operating profit, the Group Executive Board and the Supervisory Board have proposed a 55 cent higher dividend of 1.25 euros per share at the annual general meeting on 29 April 2008.
It's gotta be, and no doubt they are a very well run airline. If you are interested and have a strong stomach, ask your broker. You get no recommendations from me - but let's check back in a few months and see if he's right!

Are airlines stocks a contrarian opportunity? [SeekingAlpha.com]
Lufthansa IR Portal [Official Site]

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